Blog dedicado ao livro A. Mateus, Economia Portuguesa, Editora Principia.

Categoria: Development Policies

Globalization after the COVID-19 pandemic


After five decades of intense globalization, the process decelerated fast after the global financial crisis and in the last five years has witnessed new challenges that are coming under full force with the pandemic. The first big question is the geopolitical role of China vis-a-vis the European Union and the USA. The EU is the region that lost more and will continue to lose more in its share of world GDP, to the benefit of East Asia, and mainly China. In the EU agenda EU four points should be at the top, focused in a long-term strategy: (i) a world agreement with a global agency on controlling pandemics; (ii) reshoring of value chains to reduce the risk of disruptions; (iii) new industrial policy directed at strategic sectors like digitalization, AI, life sciences and climate change; (iv) rebalancing trade policy in order to protect intellectual property and regulate technology transfer in critical sectors; and (v) regulate foreign direct investment into the EU to maintain a competitive system and ensure security.

Session at Instituto Estudos Políticos, UCP, Lisbon, 5.5.2020

Globalization after the pandemics

Two waves of globalization: a reinterpretation



Open lecture at Institute de Estudos Políticos, Universidade Católica Portuguesa (18.3.2019)

The first wave (1870-1913) was a major migration of Europe to the Western Offshoots, of about 60 million persons, but bringing with them an estimated 2.8 trillion USD of human capital and translating to the new territories European institutions. Combined with the large natural resources, the new nations had similar levels of development of the Old Continent, spurring the second industrial revolution. The second wave (1985-Present) added about 30% to the world economic system with the addition of Eastern Europe, the old Soviet Union and Communist Asian countries. The share of industry in Europe and North America was halved and East Asia became the largest manufacturing region in the world, with production of more than 2 trillion USD in 2017. Both eras had a large reduction in trade costs and technological progress that fed the process of globalization. The transfer of human capital through student migration to developed countries and transfer of know-how by imports, patent transfer and FDI are important. Several regressions make the link between trade and growth theories.

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Globalização^J factos e mitos rev1



Innovation, considering the process of accumulation of intangible capital in a society, contributes with 20 to 30% to productivity growth in developed economies. Several European countries, including Portugal, have made a large effort in increasing its effort of State R&D. However, not only it only represents about 12% of the innovation effort, but its efficiency has been low. There is a need to increase the capability of the universities and large state laboratories to link with enterprises and increase the rate of patenting and creation of better products and markets and improve organizations. Based on an extensive array of best-practices around the world, the paper identifies a large spectrum of policies required to modernize universities, revitalize state laboratories and mainly launch a set of initiatives to increase innovation at enterprise level. This comprises building a decentralized network of design and technological centers closely linked to industry and services clusters, revitalizing cities and technological parks with incubators and financing of venture capital and start-ups. We identify a major role for multinationals in the process of upgrading to high-tech exports and inserting the country into the value-chains of global trade and ideas.Innovation Policies